It’s not 2015 anymore.
The UK may be breaking out of its centuries-old two-party system, with up to five parties now polling at or near double digits. That opens up new paths for the Labour Party, giving it an opportunity to rethink the country’s relationship with Europe and even its voting system.
Fortius Global, formerly The Messina Group, recently conducted a UK megapoll of over 11,400 respondents, which was featured by The Guardian:
“The poll by the Messina Group (TMG) found that renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU could boost Labour’s vote share by as much as seven points, if the prime minister offered a fresh referendum in which he campaigned to re-enter the bloc. Almost a third of voters said an in-out referendum would be needed first, while more than one in six felt that a general election mandate would be sufficient, and the same proportion thought parliament could make the decision.”
The mega poll was also covered by The Independent.
In 2015, the then Labour leader, Ed Miliband, consolidated the left, winning voters over from the Lib Dems, but in the process cleared the path for the Conservatives to gain an unexpected majority. But over a decade later, the fragmentation of the two-party system has enabled Labour to reconsider the coalition of voters worth pursuing.
Our voting intention results showed that, if there were a general election today, Labour and Reform would be neck and neck, with 24.3% of the vote apiece. The Conservatives come next with 18.3%, the Greens on 11.9%, and the Lib Dems just under double digits on 9.3%. This would produce a hung parliament, with all sides struggling to find a workable coalition.
But Labour has the highest electoral ceiling, with 43% of voters considering voting for them. The country is still split along the fault lines of Brexit, with 59% of those who voted Remain considering voting for Labour and 70% of Leave voters not considering Labour. The lowest-hanging fruit for Labour is to consolidate the Remain vote, particularly by attracting voters from the Greens and Lib Dems.
Rejoining the EU, or at least pursuing closer relations with Europe, appears to be the ticket to doing exactly that. Our large-sample poll allowed us to conduct experiments, testing the impact of different models of the UK’s relationship with Europe on voting intention. All variations of closer relations with Europe led to an increase in Labour’s vote share. Rejoining on pre-Brexit terms had the largest effect, producing the 7-point increase noted by The Guardian.
The poll also tested the impact on voting intention under various voting systems. 43% of voters favour a system where seats reflect the share of votes, compared with 27% who prefer to keep the first-past-the-post system because it provides clear majorities. Electoral reform has traditionally been expected to disadvantage the major parties. Our research suggests the picture is more complex in a more fragmented party system. Labour led on first preferences under each of the voting systems we tested.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s exploration of closer relations with Europe and electoral reform may well prove politically advantageous. A fragmented political landscape opens up the opportunity for Labour to consolidate the Remain vote and consider a more representative voting system.
The survey was conducted between September 12 and 24, with data weighted to gender, age, region, education, ethnicity, and their votes in the 2024 general election and 2016 EU referendum.